Bold Baseball Predictions... in hindsight

I was cleaning stuff out of my car today and found a baseball preview magazine I bought back in March. I don't even remember reading it when I got it, but I looked through it today just to test some of the "experts" picks. Anyway, since this is right at the mid-point of the season for most teams (the Cardinals played their 81st game tonight), and since I had absolutely nothing better to do, I decided to compare how the season was supposed to go with how it has gone, using my own "expert" analysis, opinion, and objectivity...

According to my Beckett magazine, and the 19 experts on espn.com, the overwhelming favorites to reach the World Series were the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets. Both made huge off-season deals to bolster already solid teams; the Tigers added slugging third baseman Miguel Cabrera & lefty Dontrelle Willis, and the Mets added arguably the best pitcher in baseball today, Johan Santana. After games are over on 6/27, both teams are 39-40 (and each has won at least 6 of its last 10 games to get to that record), and both are in third places in their respective divisions, a combined 8.5 games back. (Detroit and it's 137 million dollar payroll is only 2.5 games better in the standings than Kansas City. The Tigers outspent the Royals almost threefold this season). Meanwhile, the Mets have gained ground on the tumbling Phillies, who have lost 8 of 10.

Speaking of those mega-deals, Cabrera and Santana were the top vote getters for the six major awards according to the 20 espn.com voters for their respective projected awards. Santana got 13 of the 20 picks for NL Cy Young (Carlos Zambrano was second with 4), and Cabrera got 11 for AL MVP. No other player picked up more than 2 votes. Another Tiger young stud, Justin Verlander, was the projected AL Cy Young winner with 9 votes, 6 more than the next man, Roy Halliday. The other leaders were David Wright, NL MVP (9), Evan Longoria, AL Rookie of the Year (11), and Johnny Cuerto, NL ROY (5) narrowly edging Kosuke Fukodome (4). 

After today, the only likely accurate prediction will be Longoria, who's batting .272 with 15 homers and 46 RBI on the upstart Rays, who trail Boston by just .5 game. The other award winners at the mid point are 

NL MVP - Chipper Jones, Atl (.394, 16 HR, 46 RBI) - Chase Utley is probably just as valuable, but Chipper is batting 100 points better. You can't argue with that. Slight nod to Lance Berkman, but his team is already 12 games out and looks hopelessly lost.

AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez, NYY (.332, 15, 46) - Despite spending two weeks on the DL, A-Rod is the hottest hitter in the AL and keeping the Yanks afloat. Josh Hamilton gets the same recognition as Berkman. Special note here, A-Rod's numbers are almost identical to those of Albert Pujols, and he'd be about 4th on my list right now... goes to show the NL is having a much better offensive year.

NL Cy Young - Edinson Volquez, Cin (2.08, 10-3, 110 K in 99.1 IP) - There is no contest here... yet.

AL Cy Young - Cliff Lee, Cle (2.34, 11-1, 90 K in 103.2 IP) - Several players are almost as good, but none have been as consistent as Lee.

As for the espn.com picks,

- Cabrera - (.276, 11, 45) - started off horribly, has slowly started turning it around. Has stuck out once for every 5 AB's

- D Wright - (.285, 14, 62) - among the lead leaders in RBI's, but much like Cabrera, a slow start for both him and his team have him no where in the MVP discussion right now.

- Santana - (7-6, 2.93, 95 K in 103.2 IP) - getting no run support, Johan has already matched his loss total (6) from each of his two previous Cy Young campaigns.

- Verlander - (4-9, 4.49, 72 K in 102.1 IP) - started the worst among candidates listed, at 0-6, and has already matched a career high in losses. As good as his stuff is, I'd say he's a good bet to get back towards .500 by the end of the year.

As for team predictions, most picks were fairly accurate. Boston picked up 15 of 20 votes (the Yankees got the other 5), plus 2 votes for the Wild Card. Detroit and Cleveland each received 16 total votes, with the Tigers getting 11 to win the central and 5 for the WC, and Cleveland getting 9 and 7. Los Angeles (of Anaheim) picked up only 12 votes to win the west with Seattle surprisingly getting 8. Only the Chicago White Sox snuck in to steal just one vote, a Wild Card birth.

After today, Boston holds a .5 game lead over Tampa and are 6 games up on New York in the east. In the central, Chicago leads a red hot Minnesota Twins (10 straight wins) by half a game, followed by Detroit 5 back. Cleveland is in a free fall and are tied with the resurgent Royals at 7.5 games back in a surprisingly competitive division. In the west, LA leads Oakland by 4.5. Seattle is already 19.5 games back, and on pace to lose 104 games and finish 27 games worse than their espn projected record of 85-77. 

The NL hasn't been that surprising. In the east, New York, Atlanta and Philadelphia were all projected to finish within 3 games of each other, and right now that's right where they are, with the Phillies 3.5 games up on both the Braves and Mets. However, Florida is only a game back of first after being projected to finish last in the division and among the three worst teams in baseball. In the central, the Cardinals were picked to fight with the Pirates for last while Cincinnati was a darkhorse to win the division (even though the Cubs got 18 of 20 votes for 1st), but St. Louis trails Chicago by only 4.5 games while the Reds will be popular come trading deadline time, 13.5 back. If the west has yielded any surprises, it's that the Giants are only 5.5 back, not because they've been playing well, but because the division is the worst in baseball. First place Arizona has lost 7 of 10 and is 40-40 on the year.

At the halfway point, the Red Sox and Cubs own baseball's two best records. This could truly be a year of a record number of bandwagon jumpers. Let the anarchy begin!